More than three years after the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, the country’s foreign engagements remain unstable and uncertain. Whether to engage or not with the Taliban regime remains a dilemma for most of the powers around the world. While the economic and strategic importance of Afghanistan is difficult to overlook, yet there is hesitancy among the regional and extra regional powers to accord recognition to the Taliban.

However, accepting the reality that there is less likelihood of a regime change in Afghanistan, at least any time in the near future, gradually countries are building ties with the Taliban to be able to benefit from Afghanistan’s economic resources as well as strategic location.

In October, Uzbekistan accepted an ambassador from the Taliban. Abdul Ghafar Bahr, who is appointed as Afghanistan’s ambassador to Uzbekistan, is only the third Afghan envoy to be accredited abroad. Previously China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had accepted ambassadors from the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

This event is a rare but important development for the Taliban. While a number of countries operate their embassies in Kabul, Afghan embassies in many of these countries are still staffed with the officials of the earlier regime. The accreditation to the Afghan envoy in Tashkent is therefore an important step for the Taliban which has struggled to get recognition from countries across the world as well as from institutions like the United Nations.

An overview of Uzbekistan’s recent engagements with Afghanistan

Even before according recognition to the Afghan ambassador, Uzbekistan has been having extensive engagements with Afghanistan. For the year 2023, Uzbekistan’s trade with Afghanistan increased six-fold year-on-year. During this period Uzbekistan’s imports from Afghanistan were $27 million and exports were $239 million.

In August, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov visited Afghanistan. During his visit the two countries signed 35 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) across various sectors which include agriculture, energy, infrastructure and manufacturing. The two neighbours also finalized a deal worth $2.5 billion in the trade and investments.

Further, Uzbekistan is inviting Afghan traders and businesspeople to the Airitom Free Zone. This zone, named after Airitom neighbourhood of the city of Termez which is located on the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border, does not just host markets and warehouses, the Airitom Free Zone also has a hi-tech hospital, an academic campus and Uzbek and Turkish restaurants.

In September, Uzbekistan begin processing of the Afghan crude oil. Under the agreement between the two countries, Uzbek oil refiner Saneg will process the Afghan crude oil at the Fergana refinery. The first shipment of oil was transported from Afghanistan’s Hairatan terminal, located in Balkh province, through rail.  

Significance

Uzbekistan’s deepening relations with the Taliban indicate the inevitability of the political reality in Afghanistan which a number of countries are now coming to accept. Uzbekistan’s accelerated engagements are also emblematic of the approach of other countries in the region towards the Taliban-led Afghanistan.

The economic and strategic compulsions have led Uzbekistan to change its outlook towards the Taliban. When the Taliban was previously in power in Afghanistan in the 1990s, Uzbekistan was a part of the anti-Taliban front known as the Northern Alliance. However, now Uzbekistan is willing to engage with the Taliban. Similarly countries like Kazakhstan and Russia which had been opposed to the Taliban are also now interacting with them. Parallel to Uzbekistan Russia and Kazakhstan are also exploring opportunities in the field of oil processing. Such opportunities would result in economic benefits for Russia and Kazakhstan. Besides, these countries are also willing to supply electricity, gas and light oil products to Afghanistan which in turn will ease Afghanistan’s energy scarcity at least to some extent.

For Uzbekistan, engagements with Afghanistan matter since the former is keen on participating in the Chabahar Port project and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). These two connectivity initiatives are important for Uzbekistan, a land-locked country, to gain access to sea through Iran. To promote stability in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is also actively cooperating with India.

A wider implication of Uzbekistan’s as well as other countries’ change of stand towards the Taliban is that indirectly, these engagements are turning into a mechanism of opposing the United States (US). Barring India and the UAE, most of the countries engaging with the Taliban either do not have very strong relations with the US or are adversaries of the US. Some of these countries are China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Iran.

Afghanistan, which is historically considered as graveyard of empires, is again at the centre of geopolitical interests of regional and extra regional powers. However, due to repeated failed experiments of invading Afghanistan and calibrating its political system, countries are now exploring ways to engage with Afghanistan in a non-invasive manner. While there may not be an invasion or an attack to change the Taliban regime, Afghanistan still remains a strategic chessboard.